DHS Threat Assessment 2024

Keypoints

• The structure of annual cybersecurity and homeland security reports typically includes sections on threats to public safety, terrorism, transnational crime, critical infrastructure, and economic security, each discussing prevailing threats, attack techniques, and notable trends.
• Key statistics reveal that domestic violent extremists have conducted multiple fatal attacks annually, with the most lethal in May 2023 killing eight people, while foreign terrorist groups like al-Qa’ida and ISIS continue efforts to rebuild overseas and threaten homeland security.
• Border encounters with migrants remain high, with record or near-record numbers of crossings from both southern and northern borders, complicating interdiction efforts and increasing the risk of potential terrorist infiltration via watchlisted individuals.
• Illegal drug trafficking, especially fentanyl mixed with additives like xylazine, remains the leading cause of overdose deaths in the US, with transnational criminal organizations in Mexico, such as the Sinaloa and Jalisco cartels, continuing significant smuggling operations.
• Foreign adversaries, including Russia, China, and Iran, actively use sophisticated disinformation campaigns leveraging AI and social media to influence US politics, undermine trust, and sow social divisions, especially as the 2024 election cycle approaches.
• Threat actors are increasingly adopting technological advancements like unmanned aerial systems (UAS) for smuggling and surveillance, while cyber threats targeting critical infrastructure aim to disrupt services and exfiltrate sensitive data.
• Increased physical and cyber attacks on critical infrastructure, including energy sectors and transportation systems, underscore the evolving tactics of domestic and foreign adversaries, utilizing AI, ransomware, and other cyber tools for disruptive purposes.
• Election interference remains a significant concern, with adversaries expected to enhance influence campaigns and attempt to exploit vulnerabilities in election infrastructure using AI-powered misinformation and cyber-attack tactics.
• Nation-states and criminal groups are employing espionage techniques to access sensitive information within critical infrastructure networks, preparing for future attacks or gaining strategic intelligence.
• Overall, the report emphasizes the complex and concurrent nature of threats facing the homeland, with technological, geopolitical, and criminal factors intersecting to create a challenging security landscape for 2024.